2026 Midterms: House Control Leans Democrat, Senate a Toss-Up
The 2026 election cycle is dominating prediction markets with hundreds of individual races. House control leans heavily Democratic, while Senate control is a toss-up. Key battleground states like Maine, Ohio, and Iowa are seeing high-volume trades.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party
89¢Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Republican Party
41¢Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?: Troy Jackson
67¢Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?: Sherrod Brown
54¢Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa?: Josh Turek
40¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
The 2026 election cycle is dominating prediction markets with hundreds of individual races.
- 02
House control leans heavily Democratic, while Senate control is a toss-up.
- 03
Key battleground states like Maine, Ohio, and Iowa are seeing high-volume trades.
Full analysis
Prediction markets for the 2026 midterms are buzzing with activity. The race for control of the House is tight—Democrats are heavily favored to win the House at 84¢ (CONTROLH-2026-D), while Republicans are only at 15¢. Senate control is more balanced, with Republicans at 52¢ (CONTROLS-2026-R) and Democrats at 47¢. Key individual Senate races show significant volume: Maine is 67¢ Democrat (SENATEME-26-D), Ohio is 50¢ each (SENATEOHS-26-D/R), and Iowa is 34¢ Democrat (SENATEIA-26-D). The combination market KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO- for both chambers Republican at 15¢ indicates a divided government is priced in. Traders should watch these markets for any polling shifts or candidate announcements.
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