Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 72% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Los Angeles County, California
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+14pp
12h ago
24h volume
$21K
20 contracts
Top contract
82¢
$4K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will James Talarico receive at least
Will James Talarico receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Starr County, Texas?: At least 50%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATETX26STARRJTAL-50
Will James Talarico receive at least 64% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Webb County, Texas?: At least 64%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATETX26WEBBJTAL-64
Will James Talarico receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Hidalgo County, Texas?: At least 54%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATETX26HIDALGOJTAL-54
Will James Talarico receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Webb County, Texas?: At least 62%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATETX26WEBBJTAL-62
Will James Talarico receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Hidalgo County, Texas?: At least 60%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATETX26HIDALGOJTAL-60
Will James Talarico receive at least 72% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Travis County, Texas?: At least 72%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATETX26TRAVISJTAL-72
Cluster 2
Will Jon Ossoff receive at least
Will Jon Ossoff receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Cobb County, Georgia?: At least 56%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEGA26COBBJOSS-56
Will Jon Ossoff receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Gwinnett County, Georgia?: At least 58%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEGA26GWINNETTJOSS-58
Will Jon Ossoff receive at least 72% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Fulton County, Georgia?: At least 72%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEGA26FULTONJOSS-72
Will Jon Ossoff receive at least 84% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Fulton County, Georgia?: At least 84%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEGA26FULTONJOSS-84
Cluster 3
Will Josh Turek receive at least
Will Josh Turek receive at least 82% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Johnson County, Iowa?: At least 82%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEIA26JOHNSONJTUR-82
Will Josh Turek receive at least 80% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Johnson County, Iowa?: At least 80%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEIA26JOHNSONJTUR-80
Will Josh Turek receive at least 76% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Johnson County, Iowa?: At least 76%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEIA26JOHNSONJTUR-76
Will Josh Turek receive at least 74% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Johnson County, Iowa?: At least 74%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEIA26JOHNSONJTUR-74
Cluster 4
Will Roy Cooper receive at least 6
Will Roy Cooper receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Wake County, North Carolina?: At least 62%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATENC26WAKERCOO-62
Will Roy Cooper receive at least 66% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina?: At least 66%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATENC26MECKLENBURGRCOO-66
Will Roy Cooper receive at least 64% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Wake County, North Carolina?: At least 64%
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATENC26WAKERCOO-64
Cluster 5
Will Josh Shapiro receive at least 9
Will Josh Shapiro receive at least 94% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania?: At least 94%
KXVOTECOUNTY-GOVPARTYPA26PHILADELPHIAJSHA-94
Will Josh Shapiro receive at least 96% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania?: At least 96%
KXVOTECOUNTY-GOVPARTYPA26PHILADELPHIAJSHA-96
Cluster 6
Will Katie Hobbs receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Maricopa County, Arizona
Analysis
This market assesses whether Xavier Becerra will exceed a 72% vote share in Los Angeles County during California's 2026 gubernatorial election. The 34% probability reflects skepticism that any candidate achieves this threshold in a county with nearly 10 million residents and substantial political diversity. Becerra's performance depends on statewide momentum, the competitiveness of the race, and turnout patterns in this heavily Democratic area. Even in strongly Democratic counties, gubernatorial results typically show more variation than supermajority outcomes suggest. The election occurs on November 3, 2026. Movement in this probability will likely track broader statewide polling, primary results if applicable, and demographic shifts in voter registration.
- ›Historical vote shares in LA County gubernatorial races—whether any statewide candidate has exceeded 72% there in the past three cycles
- ›Statewide polling and primary results as they emerge, indicating whether Becerra faces a competitive general election or runs unopposed effectively
- ›Turnout composition in LA County relative to state averages, since higher-than-expected Democratic participation could push vote share upward
- ›The final candidate field and whether major alternative candidates fragment opposition or consolidate around a single challenger
- ›Registration trends and demographic changes in LA County from 2022 to 2026
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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