Midterm Election Markets Show Strong Democratic House Advantage, Toss-Up Senate
Midterm election markets show Democrats heavily favored for House control (85¢), while Senate control is a near toss-up at 47¢ for Democrats vs 52¢ for Republicans. Individual Senate races in Michigan, Texas, and Maine are the key battlegrounds.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party
89¢Will Republicans win the House in 2026?: Republican Party
10¢Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party
58¢Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Republican Party
41¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Midterm election markets show Democrats heavily favored for House control (85¢), while Senate control is a near toss-up at 47¢ for Democrats vs 52¢ for Republicans.
- 02
Individual Senate races in Michigan, Texas, and Maine are the key battlegrounds.
- 03
The 2026 midterm election markets are the most active and liquid prediction arena across all platforms.
Full analysis
The 2026 midterm election markets are the most active and liquid prediction arena across all platforms. The marquee contract 'Democrats win the House in 2026' (CONTROLH-2026-D) trades at 85¢ with massive volume of 190,201 and a tight 1¢ spread, implying a market consensus of 85% probability for Democratic House control. The Republican complement (CONTROLH-2026-R) sits at 14¢ with 383,585 volume—the highest volume single contract in the entire dataset. Senate control markets show a closer race: Democrats at 47¢ (CONTROLS-2026-D, volume 19,303) versus Republicans at 52¢ (CONTROLS-2026-R, volume 6,946). The balance of power combo markets paint a nuanced picture: full Democratic control (House+Senate) at 47¢, split control scenarios range from 1¢ (R House + D Senate) to 36¢ (D House + R Senate). Individual Senate races reveal key battlegrounds: Michigan is a toss-up (R 36¢, D 62¢), Texas leans Republican (50¢ each side), and Kansas is heavily Republican (79¢). Gubernatorial races show Florida as deeply Republican (79¢), Wisconsin as competitive (R 18¢, D 81¢), and New York as safely Democratic (92¢). These markets are pricing a likely blue wave in the House but with Senate control genuinely contested.
Related markets
Source markets at a glance
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