Will Green Party receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
480 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Green Party receive at least
Will Green Party receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 10%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-10
Will Green Party receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 5%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-5
Will Green Party receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 40%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-40
Will Green Party receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 35%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-35
Will Green Party receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 30%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-30
Will Green Party receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 25%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-25
Will Green Party receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 20%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-20
Will Green Party receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 15%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-15
Cluster 2
Will Labour Party receive at least
Will Labour Party receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 20%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31LAB-20
Will Labour Party receive at least 65% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 65%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31LAB-65
Will Labour Party receive at least 55% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 55%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31LAB-55
Will Labour Party receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 50%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31LAB-50
Will Labour Party receive at least 45% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 45%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31LAB-45
Will Labour Party receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 40%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31LAB-40
Will Labour Party receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 35%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31LAB-35
Will Labour Party receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 30%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31LAB-30
Cluster 3
Will Reform UK receive at least
Will Reform UK receive at least 12% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 12%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31RUK-12
Will Reform UK receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 25%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31RUK-25
Will Reform UK receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 20%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31RUK-20
Will Reform UK receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: At least 15%
KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31RUK-15
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' assessment that the Green Party will secure at least 5% of the vote share in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The 40% odds suggest meaningful uncertainty about Green performance, likely driven by the party's historical vote share in this particular constituency and broader national polling trends. The contract ladder shows traders assign substantially lower probability to higher thresholds—the 10% barrier sits at 72¢ while 25% drops to just 15¢—indicating a consensus view that Green will most likely finish between 5-10%. The upcoming by-election result will definitively resolve this, with the winner and vote totals determined on polling day. Current trading volume is low, suggesting limited market confidence in price discovery.
- ›Green Party's performance in the 2024 general election in Holborn and St Pancras relative to the 5% threshold
- ›Current national polling for the Green Party and their trajectory in recent months
- ›Candidate quality and campaign intensity specific to this by-election compared to typical contests
- ›Local demographic and political composition of the Holborn and St Pancras constituency
- ›Turnout patterns in recent by-elections and whether they typically favor or disadvantage minor parties like the Greens
What moved the line
- Sep 3At least 15%↑25pp38→63¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3At least 20%↑25pp19→44¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4At least 20%↑24pp44→68¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4At least 25%↑20pp29→49¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4At least 30%↑16pp15→31¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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