Election 2026 Markets Active; Florida Primary and Senate Control Key
Election 2026 markets dominate the prediction landscape. Florida Governor primary has over 2 million combined volume. Senate control is tight (R 53¢), House leans Democratic (83¢). South Carolina special primary sees tight three-way race.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Republican Party
54¢Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party
84¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Election 2026 markets dominate the prediction landscape.
- 02
Florida Governor primary has over 2 million combined volume.
- 03
Senate control is tight (R 53¢), House leans Democratic (83¢).
Full analysis
2026 election markets are the most active category by number of markets and total volume. The Florida Governor Republican primary is the single most traded market, with Byron Donalds at 97¢ (vol 615,297) and James Fishback at 2¢ (vol 1,342,571). The volume on Fishback is huge, likely reflecting odds trading and arbitrage. The South Carolina Senate special primary has multiple candidates: Darline Graham (61¢), Dan Norton (48¢), Russell Fry (25¢). House control markets show Democrats favored to win the House (83¢, CONTROLH-2026-D) while Senate control is a toss-up with Republicans at 53¢ (CONTROLS-2026-R). Key battlegrounds include Michigan (SENATEMI-26-R at 43¢), Texas (SENATETX-26-R at 51¢), and Ohio (SENATEOHS-26-D at 52¢). Traders should focus on the Senate races in close states and the Florida primary where fishback vs Donalds dynamics are shifting.
Related markets
Source markets at a glance
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sf query "2026 Florida governor primary" | sf book KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD