Michigan Senate Primary Dominates Prediction Markets with Record 13.6M Volume
The Michigan Democratic Senate primary is the most actively traded political market in the dataset, with a single contract seeing over 13.6 million in volume. Abdul El-Sayed is the heavy favorite at 97¢ to be the Democratic nominee. The market is crowded with dozens of sub-markets on margin of victory, vote share, and place finishes, representing one of the deepest event-driven trading opportunities available.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party
83¢Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Republican Party
53¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
The Michigan Democratic Senate primary is the most actively traded political market in the dataset, with a single contract seeing over 13.6 million in volume.
- 02
Abdul El-Sayed is the heavy favorite at 97¢ to be the Democratic nominee.
- 03
The market is crowded with dozens of sub-markets on margin of victory, vote share, and place finishes, representing one of the deepest event-driven trading opportunities available.
Full analysis
The 2026 midterm cycle is producing extraordinary liquidity in prediction markets, with the Michigan Senate Democratic primary leading the way. The contract 'Will Haley Stevens be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?' (KXSENATEMID-26-HSTE) has accumulated over 13.6 million in volume alone, making it the single most-traded contract in the entire dataset. It trades at just 2¢, indicating the market sees her as a long shot behind Abdul El-Sayed (97¢, 5.4M volume).
Other key Michigan markets include the margin of victory contracts (KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENAT series) which have multiple sub-contracts trading between 1¢ and 95¢, and the 'place' markets (KXPRIMARYPLACE-SENAT) which ask who will finish second. The 'total vote count' market (KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENAT) at 99¢ suggests turnout will be very high.
Beyond Michigan, the control of Congress markets are also drawing significant interest. Democrats are favored to win the House at 83¢ (CONTROLH-2026-D), while Republicans are slight favorites to keep the Senate at 54¢ (CONTROLS-2026-R). The balance-of-power combo market (KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO) showing Democratic sweep of both chambers at 42¢ suggests traders see divided government as a real possibility.
The Florida gubernatorial primary is another key race, with Byron Donalds at 97¢ (KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD) as the near-certain GOP nominee. James Fishback is at 2¢, but the vote-share markets (KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLN) show heavy activity on whether he can clear various thresholds.
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The contracts behind this dispatch — current price + 24h volume. Click any card for live orderbook data.
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