Michigan Senate primary heats up – El-Sayed heavy favorite
Abdul El-Sayed holds 83¢ to be the Democratic nominee for Michigan Senate, with Haley Stevens at 16¢. Volume on these two markets exceeds 800k, making it the most traded election contest today.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?: Abdul El-Sayed
94¢Will Haley Stevens be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?: Haley Stevens
6¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Abdul El-Sayed holds 83¢ to be the Democratic nominee for Michigan Senate, with Haley Stevens at 16¢.
- 02
Volume on these two markets exceeds 800k, making it the most traded election contest today.
- 03
The 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary is the most liquid election market on Kalshi.
Full analysis
The 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary is the most liquid election market on Kalshi. Abdul El-Sayed (ticker KXSENATEMID-26-AELS) commands 83¢ with 322,779 volume, while Haley Stevens (KXSENATEMID-26-HSTE) sits at 16¢ with 318,691 volume. The spread is a tight 1¢ on both, indicating efficient pricing. Traders are watching for endorsements—Mallory McMorrow's potential nod (KXMCMORROWENDORSE-26) could shift the race. The general election winner market (KXMISENATE-26) shows El-Sayed leading at 57¢. This primary is a bellwether for progressive vs. moderate dynamics in a key swing state. With total election-2026 volume over 6.3M, this is the dominant political story.
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