Iran Conflict Escalation: Hormuz Markets Price Extended Disruption
The Iran conflict story is driving the biggest cross-asset moves of the day. Hormuz normalization probability collapsed to 7 cents, the 'Trump ends military operations by April 30' market fell to 21 cents, and multiple Iran regime change and nuclear deal markets are seeing dramatic repricing. With $4.5B+ in Iran-related volume today, this is the most active geopolitical cluster in prediction markets.
Key takeaways
- 01
The Iran conflict story is driving the biggest cross-asset moves of the day.
- 02
Hormuz normalization probability collapsed to 7 cents, the 'Trump ends military operations by April 30' market fell to 21 cents, and multiple Iran regime change and nuclear deal markets are seeing dramatic repricing.
- 03
With $4.5B+ in Iran-related volume today, this is the most active geopolitical cluster in prediction markets.
Full analysis
Iran markets are at the center of today's prediction market action, with over $4.5B in cumulative volume across the conflict cluster. The Strait of Hormuz normal-by-April-30 contract (0x924a2942747dd75703) is the most important real-time indicator — down 11 cents to just 7 cents with $2.68M in 24h volume — telling traders that the world's most important oil chokepoint remains severely disrupted.
The US invasion market (0x5db999fad322cea291) sits at 30 cents (-4 cents today) with $1.69M volume — a non-trivial probability that traders cannot ignore. Meanwhile, Trump-announces-end-of-operations by April 30 (0xfa59099fbda1e0f005) fell 7 cents to 21 cents, confirming the military campaign extends well beyond April.
Nuclear deal markets are sharply diverging by timeframe: April 30 deal (0xd08544f6162283dc8d) collapsed 14 cents to just 16 cents, while the June 30 deal (0xa70fc3695a65833b91) is at 54 cents (+4 cents). This creates a clear trading thesis: any diplomatic back-channel activity should be monitored for June-timeframe contracts.
The Iran regime stability cluster shows: fall by April 30 (0xe443dab97ad8b7f585) near zero at 1 cent, fall by May 31 (0x789c947a9415600d30) at 4 cents, fall by June 30 (0x9352c559e9648ab4ca) at 9 cents, and full-year (0xbb4d51e6364066d92e) at 21 cents. The Kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal market (KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-2) is split across three tiers: 8 cents (no deal), 35 cents, and 70 cents — likely representing different timeframe or scope definitions.
Kharg Island, Iran's critical oil export terminal, is priced with 6 cents probability of loss of control by April 30 (0xa78ecba9c4273564cc) — down 3 cents today. This market directly links Iran conflict to oil export capacity.
For traders: the most liquid entry point is the Hormuz normal market at 7 cents — if diplomacy accelerates, this could move to 30 cents rapidly. The June 30 nuclear deal at 54 cents is the most balanced risk/reward in the cluster.
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