Iran Conflict Explodes: Strait of Hormuz Normalization Collapses to 5¢
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market for April 30 plunged 7¢ to just 5¢, signaling traders see near-zero chance of shipping resuming normally this month. This directly correlates with WTI oil surging to a 62¢ probability of hitting $100 in April. Iran regime-change and US military operations markets are all actively moving.
Key takeaways
- 01
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market for April 30 plunged 7¢ to just 5¢, signaling traders see near-zero chance of shipping resuming normally this month.
- 02
This directly correlates with WTI oil surging to a 62¢ probability of hitting $100 in April.
- 03
Iran regime-change and US military operations markets are all actively moving.
Full analysis
The most significant macro story in prediction markets today is the dramatic repricing of Iran-related risk. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market (0x924a2942747dd75703) dropped 7¢ to just 5¢ — meaning traders assign only a 1-in-20 chance that Hormuz shipping returns to normal by April 30. This is the single largest move in the Iran cluster today and has cascading implications.
The US military operations against Iran continue with the 'Trump announces end of operations by April 30' contract (0xfa59099fbda1e0f005) sitting at 16¢ with $210K volume and ticking up 1¢. The 'Trump announces end by May 31' market (0x57c1e8de9d359a7605) sits at 51¢, suggesting the modal expectation is a wind-down sometime in May-June.
Iran regime fall markets are active but not pricing imminent collapse: 'regime falls by April 30' (0xe443dab97ad8b7f585) is at just 1¢, 'by May 31' (0x789c947a9415600d30) is at 3¢, and 'by June 30' (0x9352c559e9648ab4ca) is at 8¢. The 'Iranian regime fall before 2027' (0xbb4d51e6364066d92e) sits at 21¢ — meaningful but not dominant.
Kharg Island — Iran's critical oil export terminal — is being tracked: 'no longer under Iranian control by April 30' (0xa78ecba9c4273564cc) trades at 5¢, down 1¢. The 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30' (0xd87a0ee5367e38072a) collapsed to 1¢, down 1¢.
For traders: the Hormuz disruption is now the base case. The key uncertainty is duration and escalation trajectory. Watch the 'end of military operations by May 31' (0x57c1e8de9d359a7605) at 51¢ as the central thesis trade. The Kalshi Hormuz normalization market (KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17) at 4¢ for near-term recovery also confirms the bearish Hormuz view. If any ceasefire signals emerge, the 5¢ normalization contract offers massive upside.
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