Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

The market is pricing a 72% probability that at least one day during July 13-19, 2026 will see more than 10 vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint. This assessment reflects typical traffic patterns in a strategically important waterway where daily transit counts fluctuate based on global oil demand, shipping schedules, and geopolitical conditions. The high probability suggests traders expect above-average activity during this specific week, possibly driven by seasonal demand or anticipated industrial operations. The probability would decline if actual daily transits consistently fall below 10, and would increase if geopolitical tensions or supply disruptions prompt additional shipping. Resolution depends on official transit data published by maritime monitoring sources, making the outcome directly observable but subject to reporting timing. The steep price gradations across the contract ladder (72% above 10, 41% above 20, 19% above 30) indicate uncertainty about how much higher peak traffic might climb during the week.

• ›Daily Hormuz transits typically range 20-30+ vessels; achieving a peak above 10 in a single week is baseline normal; the 72% reflects expectation of standard seasonal traffic rather than anomaly
• ›Global crude oil prices and refinery utilization rates in the week of July 13-19 will directly influence shipping volumes; lower prices or reduced demand would push actual transits downward
• ›Geopolitical incidents, port closures, or shipping delays in preceding weeks could create congestion that releases into this observation window, artificially inflating a single day's count
• ›Official transit tallies come from vessel monitoring systems and maritime authorities; data quality and reporting lag could affect resolution clarity if counts fall near the 10-threshold
• ›The 31% probability on the runner-up contract (above 20) shows traders assign significant mass to outcomes between 10-20 transits, suggesting consensus uncertainty about whether this week runs hot or normal

What moved the line

• Jul 22Above 10↑18pp55→73¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 18Above 20↓17pp27→10¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 24Above 15↓16pp29→13¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 19Above 15↓11pp28→17¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 21Above 15↑11pp15→26¢ · Kalshi

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How we compute these odds