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SimpleFunctions aggregates Kalshi and Polymarket into a single live feed — the Iran index at /predictions/iran bundles every related contract with current price, 24h volume, and cross-venue gaps.

April 28, 2026·Iran·Older · 2mo ago

Iran Military Operations Continue — Regime Stability at 8¢ for June, Oil Disruption Ongoing

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

The US military campaign against Iran continues with near-zero odds of operations ending in April (2¢) and only 33¢ for May. The Iranian regime itself is priced at 8¢ to fall by June 30, and Kharg Island seizure is at 12¢ for May 31. The Hormuz disruption is the key transmission mechanism to global markets.

Key takeaways

01
The US military campaign against Iran continues with near-zero odds of operations ending in April (2¢) and only 33¢ for May.
02
The Iranian regime itself is priced at 8¢ to fall by June 30, and Kharg Island seizure is at 12¢ for May 31.
03
The Hormuz disruption is the key transmission mechanism to global markets.

Full analysis

The Iran conflict is the dominant macro theme in prediction markets today, intersecting with oil, geopolitics, and global risk. The key market structure:

**Regime stability**: Iranian regime falls by April 30 at 0¢ (0xe443dab97ad8b7f585, $2.1M volume — settled), by June 30 at 8¢ (-1¢, 0x9352c559e9648ab4ca), before 2027 at 21¢ (-1¢, 0xbb4d51e6364066d92e). The regime is expected to survive in the near term.

**Military operations**: Trump announces end of operations by April 30 at 2¢ (-2¢, 0xfa59099fbda1e0f005), May 31 at 33¢ (-4¢, 0x57c1e8de9d359a7605), June 30 at 52¢ (-7¢, 0xc84dfa2ab4a808d1b9). Operations ending by June is now under 50% — a key shift from yesterday.

**Kharg Island** (Iran's primary oil export terminal): no longer under Iranian control by April 30 at 1¢ (0xa78ecba9c4273564cc), May 31 at 12¢ (0xa1d97efb8a19de58d9), June 30 at 16¢ (0x6897736d782ce70f47). The Kharg Island oil terminal being hit is at 3¢ (-2¢, 0xc5675bc58c8117391c).

**Nuclear deal**: US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 at 1¢ (-1¢), by June 30 at 34¢ (-4¢, 0xa70fc3695a65833b91). Iran enrichment end by December at 44¢ (-5¢). The Kalshi KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT shows 1-17% for a nuclear deal this year depending on timing.

**Hormuz**: The Kalshi KXHORMUZWEEKLY shows only 61% chance of 50+ weekly transit calls (well below normal), with 80+ transits at just 3%. This is the most direct link to the +23¢ WTI oil move today.

For traders: the June 30 operations-end market at 52¢ (down 7¢) is the highest-information contract for positioning. A drop below 50¢ would signal market consensus that the conflict extends into summer.