Iran Military Operations Markets Reprice Sharply — End Date Pushed Back
The near-term Iran military operations end contracts dropped -5¢ each, while the Iranian regime fall before 2027 contract rose +3¢. Markets are simultaneously pricing in a longer conflict AND greater long-run regime instability — a meaningful divergence for traders.
Key takeaways
- 01
The near-term Iran military operations end contracts dropped -5¢ each, while the Iranian regime fall before 2027 contract rose +3¢.
- 02
Markets are simultaneously pricing in a longer conflict AND greater long-run regime instability — a meaningful divergence for traders.
- 03
Iran-related prediction markets showed some of the sharpest directional moves today across multiple fronts.
Full analysis
Iran-related prediction markets showed some of the sharpest directional moves today across multiple fronts. The 'Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30' contract (0xfa59099fbda1e0f005) dropped -5¢ to just 4¢, essentially eliminating the possibility of a near-term wind-down. Simultaneously, the 'by May 31' version (0x57c1e8de9d359a7605) also dropped -5¢ to 36¢, with $80,475 in volume. The June 30 end-of-operations contract (0xc84dfa2ab4a808d1b9) fell -7¢ to 58¢. This is a coordinated timeline shift — traders are adding weeks or months to their conflict duration estimates. On the other side of the Iran ledger, 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027' (0xbb4d51e6364066d92e) rose +3¢ to 23¢ on $91,694 in volume, suggesting that while the military campaign is lasting longer, it's also increasing the perceived probability of structural regime change. The 'Iran leadership change by June 30' contract (0xb196a122933da9aff6) sits at 24¢ (+2¢). The Kharg Island control markets (0xa78ecba9c4273564cc) dropped -2¢ to 2¢ for April 30 but the May 31 version (0xa1d97efb8a19de58d9) holds at 13¢. The US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 (0xa70fc3695a65833b91) tumbled -8¢ to 39¢. Traders should closely watch the 'Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium' contracts (0x5d37825716832a4a54 at 2¢, down -5¢) as any progress here would be a major catalyst. The most liquid near-term market remains 'Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by April 30' at 1¢ — essentially resolved against normalization.
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