How do I track iran prediction markets in real time?

SimpleFunctions aggregates Kalshi and Polymarket into a single live feed — the Iran index at /predictions/iran bundles every related contract with current price, 24h volume, and cross-venue gaps.

April 25, 2026·Iran·Older · 2mo ago

Iran Military Operations Pricing Collapses — April Deal Now Dead

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

The Trump-announces-end-of-Iran-operations-by-April-30 contract crashed 7 cents to just 3¢ while the Hormuz normalization by May contract fell 9 cents to 33¢. Simultaneously, WTI crude oil prediction markets saw the $100 April strike surge 18 cents to 64¢ — the largest single-day move in the data.

Key takeaways

01
The Trump-announces-end-of-Iran-operations-by-April-30 contract crashed 7 cents to just 3¢ while the Hormuz normalization by May contract fell 9 cents to 33¢.
02
Simultaneously, WTI crude oil prediction markets saw the $100 April strike surge 18 cents to 64¢ — the largest single-day move in the data.
03
Today's prediction market data tells a clear story: the window for a rapid US-Iran resolution has effectively closed.

Full analysis

Today's prediction market data tells a clear story: the window for a rapid US-Iran resolution has effectively closed. The 'Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30' contract (0xfa59099fbda1e0f005) collapsed 7 cents to just 3¢ on $612k volume — traders have firmly rejected the idea of an April ceasefire announcement. Similarly, the 'US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30' (0xd08544f6162283dc8d) fell 6 cents to 4¢.

The Strait of Hormuz disruption is now priced as a multi-month event. The 'traffic returns to normal by end of April' contract (0x924a2942747dd75703) sits at 1¢ with $1.37M in volume — essentially certain not to happen. Even the May normalization contract (0x518a5b030b205706b8) dropped 9 cents to 33¢, meaning markets give only 1-in-3 odds of May resolution.

This directly feeds into oil markets. The '$100 WTI by April' contract (0x65414628f108533d68) surged an extraordinary 18 cents to 64¢ — a majority now expects WTI to hit $100 at some point this month. For context, the '$120 WTI by April' contract (0x7eceae72d7d7b3e175) is at 8¢, and '$150 by June' (0xeda0e0633f131b761c) rose 3 cents to 16¢.

Traders should note the Kalshi Hormuz weekly transit call markets (KXHORMUZWEEKLY) pricing in extremely low call volumes — 'more than 30 calls from Apr 25' at 51¢ suggests we're barely at half of pre-crisis levels. The Brent crude markets on Kalshi show the Apr 27 >$95.99 contract at 65¢ and >$99 at 68¢, consistent with this repricing.

Key positions: Long the '$100 WTI by April' contract if you believe the Hormuz closure persists. The 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31' (0xbcacd5a055f5a9ced6) at 9¢ (-2¢) is worth watching as a negotiation proxy.