Iran Nuclear Deal Odds Jump as Diplomacy Intensifies
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 remains robust at 68¢, while the 'nuclear deal by June 30' contract gained 1¢ to 20¢. Heightened diplomatic signals are drawing trader attention to the Strait of Hormuz markets.
Key takeaways
- 01
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 remains robust at 68¢, while the 'nuclear deal by June 30' contract gained 1¢ to 20¢.
- 02
Heightened diplomatic signals are drawing trader attention to the Strait of Hormuz markets.
- 03
Iran-related prediction markets are showing increased activity as diplomatic channels appear to be more active.
Full analysis
Iran-related prediction markets are showing increased activity as diplomatic channels appear to be more active. The US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 contract (ticker 0xa70fc3695a65833b91) moved up 1¢ to 20¢ on volume of over 318,000 contracts, signaling that traders are pricing in a modest chance of near-term progress. The longer-dated permanent peace deal by December 31 (ticker 0x9769f78cbc95a5ed11) holds steady at 68¢ with a tight 1¢ spread and nearly 150,000 in volume, making it one of the most liquid geopolitical markets.
Key contracts to watch: - **US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027** (0x182390641d3b1b47cc): 67¢, 104,496 volume — the most liquid longer-term view - **Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by end of June** (0x348cd9adf4f6855f58): 10¢, 468,360 volume — a key barometer of immediate tension - **Iran agrees to end enrichment by June 30** (0x9d3f02264a94bafc67): 12¢, +3¢ on the day — showing incremental optimism - **US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30** (0x4d0c4865bdecc5f797): 39¢, +8¢ — a significant move suggesting traders expect a Trump announcement
The Strait of Hormuz normalization timeline is critical: the market sees only a 10% chance of normality by end of June, rising to 31% by July 31, and 77% by December 31. This gradual repricing captures the market's view that resolution will take time but is likely within the year. Traders should monitor the Kharg Island control contract (0x6897736d782ce70f47) at 3¢ for June 30, and the Iranian regime fall market (0x9352c559e9648ab4ca) at 1¢ — though very low probability, these tail risks could spike on any major news.
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