Iran nuclear deal odds tumble as May 31 deadline approaches
The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 dropped 2¢ to 8¢ with over 520k volume, while a diplomatic meeting by the same date fell 4¢ to 14¢. Traders are losing confidence in a near-term breakthrough, likely due to recent escalations and lack of progress in talks.
Key takeaways
- 01
The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 dropped 2¢ to 8¢ with over 520k volume, while a diplomatic meeting by the same date fell 4¢ to 14¢.
- 02
Traders are losing confidence in a near-term breakthrough, likely due to recent escalations and lack of progress in talks.
- 03
The geopolitical risk premium around Iran is intensifying as multiple contracts show fading optimism for diplomatic resolution.
Full analysis
The geopolitical risk premium around Iran is intensifying as multiple contracts show fading optimism for diplomatic resolution. The polymarket contract "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?: May 31" (ticker 0x0e4a0c937b8934c247) fell 2¢ to 8¢ on volume of 520,868, indicating market participants are pricing in only an 8% chance of a deal by end of May. Similarly, "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?: May 31" (ticker 0x2bef40a1f62d045527) dropped 4¢ to 14¢ on 245,899 volume, suggesting that even a meeting is becoming unlikely. The most liquid contract in this space is "Israel x Syria security agreement by...?: June 30" (ticker 0x9e0e621f21099a443d) at 13¢ with a tight 1¢ spread and 4.35M volume, reflecting broader regional instability. The US military strike on Iran probability (31¢, 219k vol) and the Strait of Hormuz blockade dynamics (see oil topic) are closely interconnected. Traders should monitor the May 31 deadline for diplomatic efforts; a break below 5¢ on the peace deal contract would signal near-zero hope and could lead to a sharp move in oil and defense-related markets.
Key contracts to watch: - US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31: 8¢ (0x0e4a0c937b8934c247) - Will the US strike Iran before 2027: 31¢ (0x5db999fad322cea291) - Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by May 31: 0¢ (0xffe381a80c1e36f9e0) and June: 28¢ (0x348cd9adf4f6855f58)
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sf query "iran peace deal may 31"