Iran Nuclear Deal Probability Surges 7 Points in 24 Hours
The likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 jumped from 8¢ to 15¢, driven by reports of backchannel negotiations. A permanent peace deal by May 31 remains low at 9¢, but the June 30 contract has risen to 41¢.
Key takeaways
- 01
The likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 jumped from 8¢ to 15¢, driven by reports of backchannel negotiations.
- 02
A permanent peace deal by May 31 remains low at 9¢, but the June 30 contract has risen to 41¢.
- 03
The Iran nuclear deal market (0xe98938875eadeffcc4) saw a dramatic 7¢ increase in 24 hours, with volume exceeding 1.7 million.
Full analysis
The Iran nuclear deal market (0xe98938875eadeffcc4) saw a dramatic 7¢ increase in 24 hours, with volume exceeding 1.7 million. This move likely reflects leaked details of a potential framework agreement, possibly involving enriched uranium surrender and sanctions relief. Traders should monitor the May 31 deadline closely, as the market is pricing in only a 15% chance. Key contracts to watch: 'US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?' (15¢, vol 1.7M), 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31?' (9¢, vol 5.8M), and 'Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?' (9¢, up 5¢). A breakthrough would have massive implications for oil prices (WTI below $85 is at 44¢) and global risk sentiment. Conversely, failure could trigger volatility in the Strait of Hormuz shipping markets (normal traffic by end of May at 1¢).
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