Iran Peace Deal Odds Crash as Diplomacy Stalls
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 15 plunged 12¢ to 2¢ on high volume, reflecting failed talks or new tensions. Diplomatic meeting odds also dropped. Traders are watching for the May 31 and June 30 deadlines.
Key takeaways
- 01
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 15 plunged 12¢ to 2¢ on high volume, reflecting failed talks or new tensions.
- 02
Diplomatic meeting odds also dropped.
- 03
Traders are watching for the May 31 and June 30 deadlines.
Full analysis
Iran-related prediction markets experienced a sharp selloff today as the likelihood of a permanent peace deal by mid-May collapsed. The contract for a deal by May 15 (P | 0x1db02ba50e2312a62b) fell 12¢ to just 2¢ on volume of 2.48M, while the May 11 deadline dropped 4¢ to 0¢. The diplomatic meeting market for May 15 (P | 0x70d706fe084905dbaf) also cratered 12¢ to 3¢. These moves suggest traders are pricing out any near-term breakthrough, possibly due to reports of Iran enriching uranium to higher levels or the US maintaining its military posture. The June 30 peace deal contract now sits at 41¢ (down 10¢), while the Iranian regime fall by June 30 is at a mere 6¢. The Strait of Hormuz normalization contracts also saw sharp declines (May 15 down 15¢ to 4¢). Key contracts to watch: US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 (2¢, vol 2.48M), Iran agrees to end enrichment by June 30 (26¢), and US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30 (13¢). The next catalyst could be the May 15 meeting between US and Iranian officials.
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