Iran Peace Deal Odds Plummet as Near-Term Deadlines Approach
Several Polymarket contracts for a US-Iran permanent peace deal saw declines of 4-6¢ in the May 11 and May 13 windows, while the longer-dated December 31 contract holds at 74¢. The market is pricing increasing skepticism of a quick breakthrough.
Key takeaways
- 01
Several Polymarket contracts for a US-Iran permanent peace deal saw declines of 4-6¢ in the May 11 and May 13 windows, while the longer-dated December 31 contract holds at 74¢.
- 02
The market is pricing increasing skepticism of a quick breakthrough.
- 03
The string of US-Iran permanent peace deal contracts on Polymarket showed significant selling in near-term maturities.
Full analysis
The string of US-Iran permanent peace deal contracts on Polymarket showed significant selling in near-term maturities. The May 11 contract (ID: 0x1db02ba50e2312a62b) dropped from 17¢ to 13¢ (-4¢), the May 13 contract (ID: 0x2509daa236d3aea83c) fell from 14¢ to 8¢ (-6¢), and the May 31 contract (ID: 0x0e4a0c937b8934c247) declined from 34¢ to 26¢ (-8¢). These moves suggest traders are losing hope for a deal in the immediate weeks. In contrast, the June 30 contract (ID: 0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48) only slipped from 51¢ to 45¢ (-6¢) and the December 31 contract (ID: 0x9769f78cbc95a5ed11) held steady at 74¢, indicating that a deal later in the year is still considered likely.
Total volume across Iran peace deals is over 3 million, with the May 31 contract alone seeing 998k. Also notable: the “U.S. invades Iran before 2027?” market (P | 0x5db999fad322cea291) is at 21¢, up slightly, suggesting that diplomacy failing could raise conflict risk.
Key contracts to watch: - P | 0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48 (peace deal by June 30) – 45¢, moderate probability - P | 0x9769f78cbc95a5ed11 (peace deal by Dec 31) – 74¢, anchor for longer view - P | 0x5db999fad322cea291 (US invades Iran before 2027) – 21¢, hedge against diplomatic failure - P | 0x518a5b030b205706b8 (Strait of Hormuz normal by May 31) – 25¢, related to military tensions
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