Iran Peace Deal Odds Skyrocket as Hormuz Blockade Looms
Massive volume and sharp price jumps across Iran peace deal and Hormuz markets indicate a strong catalyst—likely diplomatic progress or military de-escalation.
Key takeaways
- 01
Massive volume and sharp price jumps across Iran peace deal and Hormuz markets indicate a strong catalyst—likely diplomatic progress or military de-escalation.
- 02
Iran-related prediction markets saw dramatic shifts as diplomatic signals intensified.
- 03
The Polymarket contract for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 surged from 13¢ to 25¢ (+12¢) on volume over 2 million, while the May 15 deadline jumped from 3¢ to 13¢ (+10¢).
Full analysis
Iran-related prediction markets saw dramatic shifts as diplomatic signals intensified. The Polymarket contract for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 surged from 13¢ to 25¢ (+12¢) on volume over 2 million, while the May 15 deadline jumped from 3¢ to 13¢ (+10¢). Simultaneously, the Strait of Hormuz normalization market (May 31) rose 13¢ to 28¢, and Trump's announcement of lifting the blockade by May 22 gained 23¢ to 37¢. These moves suggest traders are pricing in a high probability of near-term de-escalation, likely driven by reported talks or military posture changes. The most liquid contract, $0xa0f4c, shows a tight 1¢ spread. Traders should watch the June 30 peace deal contract (44¢) and the uranium surrender market (24¢) for continuation.
Zoom out
sf query "Iran peace deal"