Iran Peace Deal Odds Tumble Amid Stalled Talks
The probability of a U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 dropped 3 points to 14¢, while the May 15 deadline contract sits at nearly zero. Traders are flocking to Epstein-related narratives as a proxy for Iran instability.
Key takeaways
- 01
The probability of a U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 dropped 3 points to 14¢, while the May 15 deadline contract sits at nearly zero.
- 02
Traders are flocking to Epstein-related narratives as a proxy for Iran instability.
- 03
Prediction markets on Iran are seeing heavy action following reports that nuclear negotiations have hit a deadlock.
Full analysis
Prediction markets on Iran are seeing heavy action following reports that nuclear negotiations have hit a deadlock. The `US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?: May 31` contract fell from 17¢ to 14¢, with volume exceeding 650,000 contracts. Meanwhile, the `Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?: December 31, 2026` market surged to 7¢ on 1.1M volume, as some traders link Epstein's case to Iranian intelligence networks. The `Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May` contract dropped to 7¢, reflecting fears of prolonged disruption. Key contracts to watch: `US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?: May 31` (7¢), `Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31` (1¢), and `US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?: May 13` (0¢). Traders should monitor the `KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17` kalshi market for real-time oil transit data, which current shows only 6¢ probability of normalization. The significant drop in peace deal probabilities suggests traders expect either a prolonged standoff or a sudden escalation. The Epstein market's 1M+ volume indicates this is becoming a key sentiment gauge for Iran risk.
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