Iran Peace Deal Optimism Fades, Strait of Hormuz Risk Premium Rises
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 fell 3 points to 11¢, while the odds of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June 30 dropped 4 points to 28¢. These moves signal traders expect prolonged geopolitical disruption in the region.
Key takeaways
- 01
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 fell 3 points to 11¢, while the odds of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June 30 dropped 4 points to 28¢.
- 02
These moves signal traders expect prolonged geopolitical disruption in the region.
- 03
Geopolitical risk repriced across Iran-related contracts today.
Full analysis
Geopolitical risk repriced across Iran-related contracts today. The 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by __?: May 31' contract (0x0e4a0c937b8934c247) on Polymarket fell 3 points to 11¢ on 1,033,556 volume, the largest by turnover in the Iran suite. The June 30 version (0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48) sits at 34¢ with a tight 1¢ spread and 292,482 volume — indicating the market's best guess is a deal remains possible but not probable. The 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June' (0x348cd9adf4f6855f58) suffered a 4-point drop to 28¢ on 666,054 volume, a clear signal that traders expect the chokepoint disruption to persist. This has direct energy market implications: crude oil contracts on Polymarket show elevated probabilities for $115+ oil (56¢) and $140+ oil (18¢) by end of June. The 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by __?: May 31' (0xbcacd5a055f5a9ced6) sits at 6¢, and the 'Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31' (0x789c947a9415600d30) at 1¢ — suggesting traders see regime change as extremely unlikely in the near term. The combination of fading peace optimism and sustained chokepoint risk should keep oil volatility elevated.
Zoom out
sf query "Strait of Hormuz" | sf book 0x348cd9adf4f6855f58