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May 9, 2026·Iran·Older · 2mo ago

Iran Peace Deal Window Narrows: May 8 Contract Hits 0¢

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

The 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8' contract fell to 0¢ as the deadline approaches with no agreement. Other near-term dates also slid sharply, reflecting market pessimism about a quick resolution. However, longer-dated contracts (June 30) hold at 46¢, keeping hope alive for a summer deal.

Key takeaways

01
The 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8' contract fell to 0¢ as the deadline approaches with no agreement.
02
Other near-term dates also slid sharply, reflecting market pessimism about a quick resolution.
03
However, longer-dated contracts (June 30) hold at 46¢, keeping hope alive for a summer deal.

Full analysis

The Iranian nuclear negotiations are showing clear signs of stalling. The closest expiry, 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8' (P | 0xc5331256bff341491d), is now trading at 0¢ after falling 3¢, effectively pricing in 100% probability of failure by that date. Similarly, the May 11 and May 13 contracts dropped 6¢ and 7¢ respectively to 4¢ and 9¢. The May 15 contract (P | 0x1db02ba50e2312a62b) sits at 14¢, down 5¢. Interestingly, the longer-term outlook remains more optimistic: 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30' (P | 0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48) is at 46¢ (down 8¢) and 'by December 31' (P | 0x9769f78cbc95a5ed11) at 75¢ (up 2¢). This divergence suggests traders believe a peace deal is more likely later in the year than in the immediate term. The diplomatic meeting market (P | 0x70d706fe084905dbaf) saw a 5¢ increase to 17¢ for a meeting by May 15, indicating some hope for a face-to-face. The Strait of Hormuz blockade lifting odds (P | 0x36f665053a7ca5c102) increased slightly to 22¢, implying that even without a peace deal, the naval blockade could be relaxed. Traders should watch the 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31' (P | 0xbcacd5a055f5a9ced6) at 6¢ (down 1¢) for signs of escalation or compromise. The lack of a short-term deal supports the case for higher oil prices (USO -2.51% today, but could reverse) and geopolitical risk premiums.