Iran Regime Change and Deal Markets Surge in Volume
Massive trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi, driven by a jump in the probability of a presidential election and a permanent peace deal. The regime's survival after US strikes is seen as highly likely.
Key takeaways
- 01
Massive trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi, driven by a jump in the probability of a presidential election and a permanent peace deal.
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The regime's survival after US strikes is seen as highly likely.
- 03
Today saw a massive spike in activity across Iran-themed prediction markets.
Full analysis
Today saw a massive spike in activity across Iran-themed prediction markets. The highest-volume market (1.3M) is on an Israel-Syria security agreement, but the real story is the surge in questions about Iran's internal and external future.
Key movements: The probability of an Iranian presidential election by June 30 increased to 3¢ (up 1¢), and a US-Iran peace deal by May 31 is at 10¢ (down 2¢). The market overwhelmingly believes the regime will survive US military strikes (94¢).
Traders are positioning for a potential diplomatic breakthrough or a significant internal shakeup. The high volume on the "peace deal" and "diplomatic meeting" markets (0x0e4a0c937b8934c247, 0x2bef40a1f62d045527) suggests that while the probability is low, a large number of contracts are changing hands as traders take opposing views on the outcome of ongoing negotiations.
The most liquid markets, with tight spreads of 1¢, are the short-term peace deal (May 31) and diplomatic meeting (May 31) contracts, indicating deep liquidity for traders looking to express a view on near-term diplomacy. Regardless of the outcome, the sheer volume and volatility in these markets make them a key focus for any prediction market analyst today.
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sf query "iran regime fall"