How do I track iran prediction markets in real time?

SimpleFunctions aggregates Kalshi and Polymarket into a single live feed — the Iran index at /predictions/iran bundles every related contract with current price, 24h volume, and cross-venue gaps.

April 23, 2026·Iran·Older · 3mo ago

Iran Regime Change Odds Tick Up as Military Pressure Mounts

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Iran leadership change by April 30 rose to 8 cents (+4) and regime fall by May 31 jumped to 5 cents (+1). US invasion of Iran before 2027 sits at 32 cents (+2). Nuclear deal by April 30 collapsed 10 cents to 7 cents. These moves reflect genuine uncertainty about Iran's political future.

Key takeaways

01
Iran leadership change by April 30 rose to 8 cents (+4) and regime fall by May 31 jumped to 5 cents (+1).
02
US invasion of Iran before 2027 sits at 32 cents (+2).
03
Nuclear deal by April 30 collapsed 10 cents to 7 cents.

Full analysis

The Iran prediction market complex is one of the most active and interconnected in the entire dataset today, with dozens of interconnected contracts moving simultaneously. Key moves worth noting:

The Iran leadership change by April 30 market (0xb412664463bbfe21be) surged 4 cents to 8 cents on $216k volume — while still low probability, the directional move is significant. The longer-dated 'leadership change by May 31' (0x2f6a547524c1d290f8) jumped 4 cents to 17 cents.

The US nuclear deal by April 30 (0xd08544f6162283dc8d) collapsed 10 cents to just 7 cents — traders see no near-term diplomatic resolution. Even the June 30 nuclear deal (0xa70fc3695a65833b91) sits at only 49 cents (down 5), meaning near-even odds of a deal in the next 2+ months.

Trump announcing end of military operations by April 30 (0xfa59099fbda1e0f005) crashed 12 cents to 8 cents, and by May 31 (0x57c1e8de9d359a7605) dropped 13 cents to 45 cents. This is the market telling you the Iran conflict runs longer than the administration initially suggested.

The Iran coup attempt by June 30 (0x17c9dead8bed402d33) is at 19 cents (+6), and Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by May 31 (0xabef6d91adc036f3c2) fell 8 cents to 20 cents — suggesting he may be hiding or incapacitated.

For traders: the Kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal agreement contract (KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-2) at 29 cents on $23k volume is interesting — if negotiations break down completely, this should fall further. The 'Iran regime survives US military strikes' contract (0xefc69f5f48827e3319) at 92 cents is the baseline consensus position.