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SimpleFunctions aggregates Kalshi and Polymarket into a single live feed — the Iran index at /predictions/iran bundles every related contract with current price, 24h volume, and cross-venue gaps.

April 27, 2026·Iran·Older · 2mo ago

Strait of Hormuz Normalization Reprices: May Contract Jumps +5¢ as Iran Tensions Evolve

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of May jumped +5¢ to 39¢ while the April contract expired at 0¢. This repricing suggests traders see meaningful probability of a US-Iran deal or de-escalation within the next month, with direct oil market implications.

Key takeaways

01
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of May jumped +5¢ to 39¢ while the April contract expired at 0¢.
02
This repricing suggests traders see meaningful probability of a US-Iran deal or de-escalation within the next month, with direct oil market implications.
03
The Strait of Hormuz prediction markets are sending a cautiously optimistic signal about near-term de-escalation.

Full analysis

The Strait of Hormuz prediction markets are sending a cautiously optimistic signal about near-term de-escalation. The 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May' contract (0x518a5b030b205706b8) jumped +5¢ to 39¢ with $200,527 in volume — a significant single-day move driven by optimism around US-Iran negotiations.

This move is consistent with the Trump military operations end-of-May contract (0x57c1e8de9d359a7605) rising +2¢ to 38¢, and the June 30 end-of-operations contract (0xc84dfa2ab4a808d1b9) at 61¢ (+3¢). The parallel moves across multiple Iran de-escalation contracts confirm this is a coordinated repricing, not noise.

Kalshi's KXHORMUZNORM markets show interesting divergence: the 'back to normal in April' market at 1¢ (already effectively expired), but the May and June normalization windows show more meaningful probabilities. The KXHORMUZWEEKLY markets tracking weekly transit calls show the '30+ transit calls' contract at 92¢, suggesting some baseline traffic persists even under current tensions.

For oil traders, this matters enormously. Roughly 20% of global oil trade transits Hormuz. If normalization materializes, it would remove the risk premium from oil prices — consistent with today's -2.24% USO decline potentially being partially driven by this expectation.

Key contracts to monitor: the US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 (0xd08544f6162283dc8d, at 2¢ — very cheap option), the June 30 deal (0xa70fc3695a65833b91, at 37¢ -2¢), and the full-year deal (0x182390641d3b1b47cc, at 58¢ -6¢ — notably falling despite other de-escalation contracts rising, suggesting traders see deal terms as uncertain even if military tensions ease). The Kharg Island contracts remain at very low levels (1-16¢), consistent with no imminent physical threat to oil infrastructure.