US Military Operations Against Iran: May Wind-Down Now 38¢
Prediction markets are increasingly pricing in a late-May or June resolution to US military operations against Iran, with the May 31 contract rising 5¢ to 38¢ and June 30 at 61¢. This contrasts with near-zero probability for April 30 wind-down, suggesting traders see a 1-2 month timeline for de-escalation.
Key takeaways
- 01
Prediction markets are increasingly pricing in a late-May or June resolution to US military operations against Iran, with the May 31 contract rising 5¢ to 38¢ and June 30 at 61¢.
- 02
This contrasts with near-zero probability for April 30 wind-down, suggesting traders see a 1-2 month timeline for de-escalation.
- 03
Iran-related prediction markets saw significant repricing today across multiple timeframes.
Full analysis
Iran-related prediction markets saw significant repricing today across multiple timeframes. The most notable: 'Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31' (0x57c1e8de9d359a7605) rose 5¢ to 38¢, while the June 30 equivalent (0xc84dfa2ab4a808d1b9) is at 61¢ after a 4¢ rise. Together these paint a picture of traders pricing a 1-2 month window for military de-escalation.
The April 30 wind-down contract (0xfa59099fbda1e0f005) is at just 4¢ (up 1¢), confirming near-zero probability of an imminent end. The Strait of Hormuz 'normal by end of April' contract (0x924a2942747dd75703) sits at 1¢ with $1.1M in volume — the most liquid Iran contract, and it's essentially resolved NO for this month.
For Hormuz recovery, traders should focus on the May contract (0x518a5b030b205706b8) at 34¢ (up 1¢, $153k volume) — this is the primary tradeable instrument for a staged reopening scenario.
Iran enrichment agreements: 'Iran agrees to end enrichment by June 30' (0x9d3f02264a94bafc67) jumped 5¢ to 36¢ with $10.9k volume, suggesting meaningful probability of a nuclear deal alongside any ceasefire. The US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 (0xa70fc3695a65833b91) also rose 6¢ to 37¢.
Kharg Island oil terminal risk remains real: the 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30' contract (0x6897736d782ce70f47) rose 1¢ to 16¢ with $58k volume. For oil traders, this is the tail-risk contract to watch — if Kharg Island is disrupted, WTI could easily reach $100+.
Key trading implication: the May 31 wind-down at 38¢ appears underpriced if diplomatic progress is genuinely happening given the June 30 contract at 61¢.
Zoom out
sf query "Iran military operations Hormuz"