Trump Administration Turmoil: Cabinet Exit Bets Spike

The most traded non-election political markets today all center around the stability of the Trump administration. The highest volume contract is KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26, which asks 'Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?'. At 26¢, it implies a 26% chance of Hegseth departing before the end of the year. This is a significant number, suggesting the market anticipates at least one major cabinet shakeup. Other notable departure markets include those for Kash Patel (18¢) and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (19¢), indicating a broader expectation of churn. The most extreme bet is the contract 'Will President Trump resign before his term is up?' (KXTRUMPRESIGN), which trades at 20¢ on over 13,000 volume. While still low probability, this 20% baseline is a constant overhang. In the PR world, the next Press Secretary race is heating up: 'Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary of United States?' (KXNEXTPRESSEC-29JAN2) leads the pack at 25¢, followed by Scott Jennings (22¢) and Alina Habba (8¢). The market is fragmented, suggesting no clear frontrunner. Traders watching these personnel markets get a real-time read on the internal dynamics and potential policy shifts within the White House.