Trump Mention Markets Dominate Volume with Event-Based Contracts
Over 55 markets track Donald Trump's statements and actions, with individual mention contracts seeing up to 73,620 volume. The impeachment probability stands at 66¢, and approval rating decline contracts are active at 24¢. These markets are highly event-driven and attract significant retail speculation.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will the President be impeached before Jan 20, 2029?: Before Jan 20, 2029
67¢Donald Trump out before 2027?: Before 2027
5¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Over 55 markets track Donald Trump's statements and actions, with individual mention contracts seeing up to 73,620 volume.
- 02
The impeachment probability stands at 66¢, and approval rating decline contracts are active at 24¢.
- 03
These markets are highly event-driven and attract significant retail speculation.
Full analysis
Donald Trump-related prediction markets are the second-largest category by volume after elections. The most active is a series of 'What will Donald Trump say during Fox News: Sunday Night in America?' contracts (KXTRUMPMENTION-26AUG), which have multiple outcomes priced at 99¢ or 1¢ with individual volumes exceeding 70,000. The impeachment market (KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20) sits at 66¢ with 4,617 volume, suggesting traders assign a decent probability of impeachment before the end of the term. Other notable contracts include Trump's approval rating falling below 35% (KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW) at 24¢, and Trump leaving office before 2027 (KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT) at 5¢. The sheer volume of these event-based markets indicates that Trump-related uncertainty drives significant trading activity, with many contracts offering 1¢ spreads and deep liquidity.
Related markets
Source markets at a glance
The contracts behind this dispatch — current price + 24h volume. Click any card for live orderbook data.
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sf query "trump impeachment"