Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Kevin Warsh in Sep 2026
Leader sits at 92% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 87%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Catherine Connolly
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
87¢
Greg Abbott
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
24 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls)
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Vladimir Putin in Sep 2026?: Vladimir Putin
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-VPUT
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Sep 2026?: Volodymyr Zelenskyy
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-VZEL
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Mark Carney in Sep 2026?: Mark Carney
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-MCAR
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Ahmed al-Sharaa in Sep 2026?: Ahmed al-Sharaa
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-AALS
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Emmanuel Macron in Sep 2026?: Emmanuel Macron
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-EMAC
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Elon Musk in Sep 2026?: Elon Musk
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-EMUS
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Rory McIlroy in Sep 2026?: Rory McIlroy
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-RMCI
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Sep 2026?: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-RERD
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Peng Liyuan in Sep 2026?: Peng Liyuan
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-PLI
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Mohammed bin Salman in Sep 2026?: Mohammed bin Salman
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-MBS
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Kevin Warsh in Sep 2026?: Kevin Warsh
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-KWAR
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Kim Jong Un in Sep 2026?: Kim Jong Un
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-KJON
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) John Thune in Sep 2026?: John Thune
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-JTHU
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Hakeem Jeffries in Sep 2026?: Hakeem Jeffries
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-HJEF
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Greg Abbott in Sep 2026?: Greg Abbott
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-GABB
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Delcy Rodríguez in Sep 2026?: Delcy Rodríguez
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-DROD
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Chuck Schumer in Sep 2026?: Chuck Schumer
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-CSCH
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Catherine Connolly in Sep 2026?: Catherine Connolly
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-CCON
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) António Guterres in Sep 2026?: António Guterres
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-AGUT
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Benjamin Netanyahu in Sep 2026?: Benjamin Netanyahu
KXTRUMPMEETM-26OCT01-BNET
Analysis
This market estimates a 94% likelihood that Donald Trump will meet or speak with Kevin Warsh at any point during September 2026. Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor and Trump adviser, has maintained periodic contact with Trump circles. The high probability reflects their established relationship and Trump's history of consulting financial or policy advisers, though the outcome depends on whether any documented interaction occurs during the specific month. The estimate would shift downward if Trump's schedule becomes fully public with no Warsh contact, or upward if they're known to communicate regularly. Resolution occurs when September ends, at which point any meeting, call, or documented communication becomes verifiable or confirmed absent.
- ›Warsh's role in Trump's previous administration and ongoing relationship with his inner circle
- ›Whether Trump's calendar and communications during September are publicly documented or confirmed
- ›The frequency of Warsh's documented interactions with Trump in preceding months (August 2026 and earlier)
- ›Scheduled financial, policy, or advisory meetings Trump participates in that Warsh might attend or call into
- ›Any public announcements by Trump's team regarding meetings with former or current advisers in September
What moved the line
- Sep 3Peng Liyuan↓38pp74→36¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2Kevin Warsh↓33pp58→25¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2John Thune↑32pp39→71¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 6Catherine Connolly↑31pp61→92¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2Peng Liyuan↑29pp45→74¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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