Trump’s World Cup Attendance Almost Certain; Market Bets on Resignation Doubt
The market is pricing a 94¢ probability that Trump will attend the 2026 World Cup Final, but also gives a 19¢ chance he resigns before his term ends. Tracking his Truth Social activity and approval ratings are the key sub-markets.
Key takeaways
- 01
The market is pricing a 94¢ probability that Trump will attend the 2026 World Cup Final, but also gives a 19¢ chance he resigns before his term ends.
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Tracking his Truth Social activity and approval ratings are the key sub-markets.
- 03
The highest-volume Trump-related market is KXTRUMPATTEND, with a 94¢ 'Yes' on his attendance at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final.
Full analysis
The highest-volume Trump-related market is KXTRUMPATTEND, with a 94¢ 'Yes' on his attendance at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final. This near-certainty is backed by massive volume of 293,006. However, a more interesting market is KXTRUMPRESIGN, which shows a 19¢ probability that Trump will resign before his term ends. While unlikely, this is a significant tail risk. Traders are also monitoring his behavior through KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL1 markets, which track his Truth Social posting frequency. His approval rating is a key indicator, currently centered around 40% according to KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL17-4 contracts. The combination of high certainty on one event (World Cup) and moderate uncertainty on another (resignation) creates interesting trading opportunities.
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sf book KXTRUMPRESIGN