Trump Tariffs: High Probability of New Trade Actions
The market gives 83% chance (83¢) that Trump will impose new or increased tariffs soon (KXNEWTARIFFS). This has broad implications for inflation, Fed policy, and global trade. Trump's approval rating is weak, with 20% chance of resignation before term ends.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will President Trump resign before his term is up?: Before his term ends
20¢Donald Trump out before 2027?: Before 2027
5¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
The market gives 83% chance (83¢) that Trump will impose new or increased tariffs soon (KXNEWTARIFFS).
- 02
This has broad implications for inflation, Fed policy, and global trade.
- 03
Trump's approval rating is weak, with 20% chance of resignation before term ends.
Full analysis
President Trump's trade policy is a key theme today. The contract 'Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs?' (KXNEWTARIFFS-26JUL-A) trades at 83¢ with 8,773 volume and a 3¢ spread – indicating strong conviction that tariff announcements are imminent. This has direct spillover effects on oil prices, inflation expectations, and Fed rate decisions. Additionally, the market for Trump resigning before his term ends (KXTRUMPRESIGN) is at 20¢, and the chance of him leaving office before 2027 (KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT) is only 6¢. The SAVE Act (KXSAVEACT) at 8¢ shows low probability of becoming law. The election emergency executive action (KXELECTIONEMERGENCY) is at 38¢. Tariffs are the most actionable contract right now, with potential to move equity and currency markets.
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