Trump 'say' markets near 99¢ probability on common phrases
Numerous Trump mention contracts are trading at 99¢—almost certain he will say words like 'Windmill', 'Autopen', and 'Kamala' before Aug 3. Volume is high, reflecting interest in Trump's speaking style.
Key takeaways
- 01
Numerous Trump mention contracts are trading at 99¢—almost certain he will say words like 'Windmill', 'Autopen', and 'Kamala' before Aug 3.
- 02
Volume is high, reflecting interest in Trump's speaking style.
- 03
These contracts function as binary options on Trump's public appearances and interviews.
Full analysis
The 'Trump says' series (KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG03-*) has some of the highest probabilities on the platform, with many phrases trading at 99¢. 'Windmill' (98k volume), 'Autopen' (35k), 'Kamala' (25k), and 'Sleepy Joe' (14k) are all near-certain to be uttered. These contracts function as binary options on Trump's public appearances and interviews. While the prices leave little upside, they attract volume due to the high certainty and short time horizon (Aug 3 expiry). Other Trump-related markets like KXNEXTAG (next Attorney General) and KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE (cabinet departures) offer more speculative plays. With total Trump topic volume over 1M, these mention bets are the most active.
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sf book KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG03-W