Trump Insurrection Act Odds Rise; Political Risk Premium Builds
The contract 'Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?' sits at 59¢, a level not seen before. Combined with a 16% chance of impeachment/removal, traders are pricing in significant political uncertainty around Trump’s second term.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029
55¢Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?: Before his term ends
17¢Donald Trump out before 2027?: Before 2027
6¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
The contract 'Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?' sits at 59¢, a level not seen before.
- 02
Combined with a 16% chance of impeachment/removal, traders are pricing in significant political uncertainty around Trump’s second term.
- 03
Trump‑related prediction markets are among the most liquid on the platform.
Full analysis
Trump‑related prediction markets are among the most liquid on the platform. The standout is KXINSURRECTION-29, which gives a 59% probability that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act before the end of his term. This contract has 24k volume and a 2¢ spread. Another notable is 'Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?' at 16¢ (KXTRUMPREMOVE). The market also sees a 6% chance Trump leaves office early (KXTRUMPOUT27). These probabilities suggest that while the base case is that Trump serves his full term, there is a nontrivial tail of extraordinary events—whether through executive action or political crisis. The approval‑rating contracts (KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW‑37) trade at 64¢, indicating expectations that his approval will drop below 37%. Traders should monitor these contracts for any news on legal proceedings, executive orders, or geopolitical flashpoints that could move them sharply.
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