Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting

The yield curve displays a dramatic inverted structure with a sharp cliff between the June and July tenors. At the shortest tenor (44 days to June 26), YES probabilities for rate-cut scenarios cluster tightly between 94-98% for outcomes below 3.50%, then collapse to just 1% for anything at 3.75% or higher. This represents the cheapest YES probability in the entire curve. By July (86 days), probabilities have already declined substantially, with the 3.50% strike dropping to 82% and the 3.75% strike plummeting to just 9%. The curve continues its downward trajectory through September, October, and December, eventually stabilizing at lower levels by January (268 days), where probabilities for lower rate scenarios hover around 70-90%. The market is expressing near-certainty that a specific outcome will occur within the next 44 days, with overwhelming conviction that rates will remain below 3.75%. However, the sharp deterioration moving forward suggests traders believe this certainty will resolve by late June, after which the probability distribution flattens considerably. The curve implies the market expects the Federal Reserve decision or announcement to occur around the June 26 resolution date, with minimal tail risk priced in for higher rate scenarios in the near term. Beyond June, the market assigns meaningfully higher probabilities to higher rate outcomes, indicating genuine uncertainty about longer-term policy direction once the immediate June event passes. This structure reflects a market confident about near-term outcomes but increasingly uncertain about the path beyond the immediate resolution window.