Will the S&P 500 be between 4000 and 4199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST

The yield curve displays a pronounced steepening pattern across the two available tenors. At the 133-day horizon, the market prices a modal probability around 17% (B8100), with a distribution that peaks in the 14-17% range before tapering sharply on both tails. The cheapest YES probabilities at this tenor cluster at 1%, representing the extreme strike prices (B4100 through B6500). In stark contrast, the 498-day tenor shows a dramatically flattened distribution, with probabilities compressed between 1-6%, peaking at only 6% (B8700 and B9300). This represents a substantial compression of roughly 11 percentage points from the near-term peak to the far-term peak, indicating a significant term structure inversion relative to typical event markets. The shape of this curve communicates that market participants view the event as substantially more likely to occur within the near-term 133-day window than across the extended 498-day horizon. The steep decline in probabilities moving from tau=133d to tau=498d suggests either that the market expects resolution or non-occurrence to be determined relatively soon, or that uncertainty about the event's timing creates a preference for pricing it as a near-term phenomenon. The minimal trading volume at the 498-day tenor (all markets show $0 vol24h) reinforces this interpretation—participants are concentrating their conviction and capital in the nearer-term contracts, effectively betting that the relevant outcome will be determined well before the extended deadline.