Will Ohio St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship

The yield curve for KXNCAAF is entirely flat across all 50 constituent markets, with every contract sharing an identical tenor of 278 days to resolution. This uniformity prevents traditional yield-curve analysis based on tenor differentiation. However, the probability distribution across the event family reveals significant dispersion: Texas commands the highest YES probability at 12%, followed by Notre Dame and Ohio State at 10% and 9% respectively, while 31 markets are priced at the floor of 1%. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at the 1% level, representing the majority of the market's constituent outcomes. This flat structure with wide cross-sectional spread indicates the market is not pricing differential timing risk but rather concentrating all uncertainty into a single resolution date 278 days forward. The market's current view, as reflected in this structure, suggests that the event outcome is largely predetermined or that meaningful resolution probability is concentrated in a narrow set of outcomes. The dominance of 1% probabilities across most markets, combined with elevated probabilities for only a handful of favorites (Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State, and Miami), indicates the market perceives this as a winner-take-most or highly concentrated outcome space rather than a diffuse probability distribution. The absence of any term structure prevents inference about when within the 278-day window the event is expected to resolve; instead, the data reveals only that market participants have already formed strong convictions about which specific outcomes are most likely, with Texas emerging as the marginal favorite at present.