Will Ohio St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship

The yield curve for KXNCAAF exhibits a completely flat structure across all 51 constituent markets, with every position sharing an identical tenor of 157 days to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, probabilities display substantial dispersion rather than a traditional curve shape. Texas commands the highest YES probability at 14.0%, followed by Notre Dame at 12.0%, with Miami, Ohio State, and Georgia clustered at 11.0% each. Indiana sits at 10.0%, while LSU trades at 7.0%. The remaining 44 markets are heavily concentrated at the 1.0% floor, with only Alabama, Mississippi, and Oregon breaking out at 3.0%, and Michigan and Texas A&M at 2.0%. The cheapest YES probabilities are the 44 markets priced at 1.0%, representing the vast majority of the constituent space. The absence of a traditional yield curve—with no variation across tenors—indicates that this event family operates on a single, unified resolution date approximately 157 days forward. The market's probability distribution across teams reflects relative strength assessments rather than temporal expectations about when outcomes materialize. The heavy concentration of 1.0% floor prices suggests these represent true long-shot positions where market participants assign minimal likelihood, while the top-tier probabilities (Texas, Notre Dame, Miami, Ohio State, Georgia) reflect genuine competitive expectations. The substantial volume concentration in higher-probability markets like LSU ($75.9M), Miami ($53.7M), and Oregon ($52.2M) indicates active price discovery among the favored outcomes, whereas the zero-volume positions at 1.0% suggest these are placeholder or residual liquidity.