Aurelien Tchouameni

The yield curve exhibits a flat structure across the two tenor buckets, with 16-day markets clustering around a weighted-average YES probability of approximately 15-18%, while the 17-day markets show a marginally lower average around 14-16%. The 16-day bucket contains the highest individual probabilities, with standout markets like NOREHAALA9-1 at 48%, BRAVINI7-1 at 46%, ENGHKANE9-1 at 41%, and MEXRJIMEN7-1 at 33%. The 17-day bucket, spanning Portugal-Spain, USA-Belgium matchups, shows more compressed probabilities, with leading markets like PORCRIS7-1 at 34% and ESPLYAMAL10-1 at 32%. The flatness of this curve, combined with the concentration of higher probabilities in the nearer 16-day tenor, suggests minimal term premium and indicates that the market does not expect significant probability shifts over this one-day horizon extension. The market's current pricing implies that the event outcome is largely determined within the immediate 16-day window, with little expectation of material resolution probability changes by day 17. The flat structure indicates confidence in near-term event resolution rather than uncertainty that would typically steepen the curve. The dominance of specific player-outcome markets in the 16-day bucket—particularly the Norwegian and English player markets commanding the highest volumes and probabilities—suggests the market is pricing a concentrated set of scenarios expected to resolve imminently. The lack of a pronounced upward or downward slope indicates the market views the event as temporally fixed rather than subject to meaningful timing uncertainty.