Will France get eliminated in the Semifinals of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

The yield curve presents a flat structure across all 80 constituent markets, with all positions sharing an identical 23-day tenor to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities display substantial dispersion across different outcome categories, ranging from lows of 1.0% (Belgium FL/FW, Canada FW, Egypt FW, Morocco FW) to highs of 84.0% (Egypt R16) and 72.0% (Canada R16). The cheapest YES probabilities cluster around early elimination scenarios (FL and FW markets), while the most expensive probabilities concentrate in Round 16 markets (R16), suggesting the market prices later-stage eliminations as significantly more likely than early exits. Mexico and France FW markets show notable outliers at 5.0% and 36.0% respectively, indicating heterogeneous expectations around specific team trajectories. The market's current pricing structure implies a strong consensus that the event will resolve within the 23-day window, with the distribution of probabilities across outcome categories revealing expectations about tournament progression rather than timing uncertainty. The steep internal differentiation—with R16 markets consistently commanding 30-50 percentage points higher probabilities than FL/FW markets—suggests the market expects most teams to advance beyond early stages. This pattern indicates confidence in a near-term resolution while simultaneously pricing in a hierarchical likelihood of outcomes, where reaching later rounds represents the base case scenario. The uniform tenor eliminates traditional yield curve analysis, but the cross-sectional probability structure reveals the market's primary uncertainty centers on which specific stage teams will exit rather than whether resolution occurs imminently.