Will Argentina get eliminated in the Final of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

The yield curve for KXWCSTAGEOFELIM exhibits a distinctly flat structure across all 329 constituent markets, with all positions sharing a uniform 64-day tenor to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, probabilities display substantial dispersion rather than a traditional yield curve shape. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster around 1.0% across multiple country-stage combinations including Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia, Canada, Côte d'Ivoire, and Congo across various stage categories (FL, FW, QF, SF designations). Conversely, the highest probabilities reach 49.0% for Australia-GS and 47.0% for both Austria-R32 and Bosnia-R32, indicating significant market disagreement about which specific outcome within this event family will materialize. The median probability across all markets sits considerably lower than these peaks, suggesting the market views most individual outcomes as unlikely. The flat tenor structure combined with wide probability dispersion reveals that the market is not expressing uncertainty about timing—all resolution occurs in 64 days—but rather profound uncertainty about which specific stage or country outcome will occur. The concentration of very low probabilities (1-5%) across numerous markets suggests the market views most scenarios as tail events, while a smaller subset of outcomes (particularly the R32 stage categories for Austria, Bosnia, and Belgium, plus Australia's GS category) command elevated conviction. This distribution pattern indicates the market expects resolution to occur within the fixed 64-day window but remains highly uncertain about the specific nature of that resolution, with no clear consensus forming around any dominant outcome.