Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 100.99 USD/Bbl on May 26, 2026

The yield curve for KXWTI displays a pronounced inverted structure, with the short-tenor 5-day contracts showing substantially higher YES probabilities than the longer-dated 166-day contracts across comparable strike prices. At the T88.99 strike, the 5-day contract trades at 80% probability while the 166-day equivalent sits at 61%, a 19-percentage-point spread. This inversion persists across the entire strike spectrum: at T95.99, the 5-day contract reaches 48% versus 23% for the 166-day; at T99.99, probabilities fall from 37% to 27%. The cheapest YES probabilities appear in the 166-day bucket at the upper strikes, where T116.99 trades at just 10% and T114.99 at 10%, compared to the 5-day floor of 23% at T102.99. The curve exhibits considerable noise and irregularity within each tenor bucket, suggesting fragmented liquidity and potentially stale pricing in lower-volume strikes. The inverted structure indicates the market expects resolution of the underlying WTI price event to occur imminently within the next five days, with probabilities for all outcomes compressing dramatically as the time horizon extends to 166 days. This suggests either an imminent catalyst or data release driving near-term price action, after which uncertainty expands significantly. The market is essentially pricing in a binary outcome within days, then reverting to much lower conviction levels for the same strikes six months out. The higher trading volumes concentrated in the 5-day contracts—particularly at T88.99 ($321), T99.99 ($440), and T97.99 ($174)—reinforce that market participants are actively positioning for near-term