Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 64.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 13, 2026

The prediction market displays a dramatically inverted yield curve, with the near-term 4-day tenor commanding substantially higher YES probabilities than the 117-day tenor across comparable strike prices. At the $71.49 strike, the 4-day market prices a 50% probability while the 117-day equivalent sits at just 25%, representing a 25-percentage-point inversion. This pattern persists across the entire strike spectrum: at $75.49, the 4-day market shows 11% probability versus 8% at 117 days; at $72.99, it's 30% versus 33% (one of the few exceptions). The cheapest YES probabilities appear in the longer-dated 117-day bucket, particularly in the $100+ strike range where probabilities cluster around 7-12%, indicating minimal market conviction for extreme upside moves over the extended horizon. This inverted structure reveals the market's expectation that any significant WTI price movement will occur imminently within the next four days, with probabilities of reaching higher price levels declining sharply as the time horizon extends. The concentration of trading volume at the $71.49 strike (4-day) and $74.99 strike (117-day) suggests these represent key price levels of near-term and medium-term interest, respectively. The market is essentially pricing in a near-term catalyst or volatility event that will resolve the uncertainty quickly, after which the probability of further upside diminishes substantially. The flattening of probabilities across strikes in the 117-day tenor indicates growing uncertainty about where prices will ultimately settle once the immediate event passes.