How high will unemployment get before 2030?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that How high will unemployment get before 2030?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 4, 2030. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 644.8% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 1.1% on the No side, reflecting the very low 12¢ price and high barrier (20% unemployment).
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 644.8% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 1.1% on the No side, reflecting the very low 12¢ price and high barrier (20% unemployment). The zero 24-hour volume combined with only $166 open interest and a wide 9¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for actual execution. With nearly four years until expiration and a 24 Cliff Risk Index, this appears to be a speculative tail-risk bet where the pricing may not reflect true consensus probability given the thin market depth.
Resolution rules
If, from June 2025 to January 2030 the U-3 unemployment rate is above 20%, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXU3MAX-30-20 yes 100