What is the current probability for "How high will unemployment get before 2030?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 88¢ (88% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 4, 2030. 1354 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "How high will unemployment get before 2030?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3.7% and 197.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "How high will unemployment get before 2030?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

How high will unemployment get before 2030?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 88% probability that How high will unemployment get before 2030?. This contract trades at 88¢ on Kalshi, closing January 4, 2030. This market is pricing in a 96% probability that U.S.

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88¢

Bid/Ask 88/96¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $228·Closes Jan 4, 2030·1354d remaining

KXU3MAX-30-5

7-day price61 snapshots · 4 regime

98¢88¢ current

Apr 884¢Apr 17

Analysis

4d ago

This market is pricing in a 96% probability that U.S. unemployment will exceed 5% at some point between June 2025 and January 2030, yet it shows virtually no trading activity with $0 in 24-hour volume and only $228 open interest. The extreme asymmetry in implied yields—4.4% for Yes versus 165% for No—combined with a 12¢ spread and recent price decline from 93¢ to 86¢ over seven days, suggests either thin liquidity masking true market sentiment or potential mispricing, particularly given that unemployment has historically breached 5% multiple times in recent decades.

Resolution rules

If the U-3 unemployment rate from June 2025 to January 2030 is above 5%, the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3.7%

IY (No) 197.7%

Adj IY 90%

CRI 7

Overround 3.1%

LAS 0.09

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	197.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	90%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.09	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Computed

4/21/2026, 10:59:42 PM

Observability lowEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:53:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXU3MAX-30-5 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →