How high will unemployment get before 2030?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that How high will unemployment get before 2030?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing January 4, 2030. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 241.8% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 3.0% on the No side, suggesting traders are heavily discounting the probability of unemployment exceeding 17% despite the five-year observation window.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 241.8% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 3.0% on the No side, suggesting traders are heavily discounting the probability of unemployment exceeding 17% despite the five-year observation window. The $0 24-hour volume and minimal $365 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate, and the wide 8¢ spread reflects this thin market. With a high cliff risk index of 9 and the threshold set well above recent historical peaks (current U-3 is around 4%), the asymmetric yield structure may reflect genuine tail-risk pricing rather than market consensus.
Resolution rules
If, from June 2025 to January 2030 the U-3 unemployment rate is above 17%, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXU3MAX-30-17 yes 100