How high will unemployment get before 2030?

This market is pricing in an 85% probability that U.S. unemployment will exceed 6% at some point over the next four-plus years, but the $0 in 24-hour volume and minimal $236 open interest suggest extremely thin liquidity and limited conviction behind the price. The stark 95.3% implied yield on the "No" side versus 7.6% on "Yes" reflects the market's heavy skew toward the affirmative outcome, though the 7-cent spread and modest cliff risk index (4) indicate relatively stable pricing despite the illiquidity. With unemployment currently around 4.2%, this market is essentially betting on a meaningful deterioration in labor market conditions before early 2030, making the high price somewhat notable given the current economic backdrop.

Resolution rules

If, from June 2025 to January 2030 the U-3 unemployment rate is above 6%, the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade