How high will unemployment get before 2030?

This market is pricing in a 63% probability of U.S. unemployment exceeding 8% within the next five years, reflecting elevated recession concerns despite the current neutral regime. The sharp 7-day rally from 54¢ to 59¢ suggests recent economic data has shifted sentiment toward higher unemployment expectations, though the extremely thin liquidity ($257 open interest, $5 daily volume) and wide 4¢ spread limit confidence in price discovery. The notably asymmetric implied yields—38.7% for betting "No" versus 18.7% for "Yes"—indicate contrarian traders see significant value in betting against a recession, though with over four years until expiry, this spread may simply reflect the long-dated nature of the contract.

Resolution rules

If, from June 2025 to January 2030 the U-3 unemployment rate is above 8%, the market resolves to Yes.

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Trade