How high will unemployment get before 2030?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that How high will unemployment get before 2030?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing January 4, 2030. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 89.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 8.0% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk premium for an unemployment spike above 12% over the next five years.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 89.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 8.0% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk premium for an unemployment spike above 12% over the next five years. The 27¢ price implies only a 27% probability of such a severe unemployment event, which appears conservative given historical precedent—the U.S. has exceeded 12% unemployment only during the Great Depression and briefly in 2009—yet the market has virtually no liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,120 open interest. The recent price decline from 25¢ to 23¢ combined with a wide 5¢ spread suggests thin order books and potential difficulty executing meaningful positions.
Resolution rules
If, from June 2025 to January 2030 the U-3 unemployment rate is above 12%, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXU3MAX-30-12 yes 100