What is the current probability for "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 40¢ (40% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 1, 2026. 189 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 473.4% and 79.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers. This contract trades at 40¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with 437% realized volatility and a 327% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting significant uncertainty around the Oakland Athletics' 2026 playoff qualification prospects.

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40¢

Bid/Ask 30/40¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $140.34·OI $14,306.73·Closes Nov 1, 2026·189d remaining

KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-ATH

7-day price654 snapshots · 31 regime

41¢30¢ current

Apr 814¢Apr 26

Analysis

9d ago

This market shows extreme volatility with 437% realized volatility and a 327% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting significant uncertainty around the Oakland Athletics' 2026 playoff qualification prospects. The price has surged dramatically from 14¢ to 36¢ over seven days before settling at 52¢, indicating rapid information arrival (1.2 events/hour) and potential overreaction or genuine fundamental shifts in the team's outlook. With $14,211 in open interest but only $1,044 in daily volume and a 5¢ spread, liquidity is relatively thin for the implied probability level, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions ahead of the November 2026 expiration.

Resolution rules

If A's is one of the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 473.4%

IY (No) 79.0%

Adj IY 261%

CRI 2

RV 626%

VR 2.92

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	473.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	79.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	261%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	626%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.92	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	10.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.45	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/26/2026, 8:50:39 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/26/2026, 8:38:47 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-ATH yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →