What is the current probability for "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 1, 2026. 189 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1741.7% and 21.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This St.

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14¢

Bid/Ask 10/14¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $534·OI $13,069.07·Closes Nov 1, 2026·189d remaining

KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-STL

7-day price183 snapshots · 8 regime

23¢10¢ current

Apr 87¢Apr 26

Analysis

9d ago

This St. Louis Cardinals playoff qualifier contract is trading at a deeply depressed 13¢ with an extraordinarily high Yes-side implied yield of 1348%, suggesting either severe mispricing or significant tail risk not captured by the baseline probability. The thin 24-hour volume of $101 against $12,374 open interest indicates low liquidity that could amplify slippage, and the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 7 signals potential binary outcome sensitivity near resolution. With 199 days to expiry and the price stable at 12¢ over the past week, this appears to be a contrarian opportunity if you believe St. Louis has better than 13% odds of qualifying, though the illiquidity warrants caution on position sizing.

Resolution rules

If St. Louis is one of the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1741.7%

IY (No) 21.5%

Adj IY 1219%

CRI 9

RV 1352%

VR 2.41

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1741.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	21.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1219%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1352%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.41	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	10.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.30	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Computed

4/27/2026, 12:17:42 AM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/27/2026, 12:23:30 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-STL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →