SimpleFunctions

Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

Arizona is priced at 55¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 49¢ bid, 57¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers.

Price history

55¢ current

+29¢
25¢50¢
Jul 9, 2026Aug 9, 2026

Contract brief

If Arizona is one of the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Arizona

Rank

#4 of 16

Leader

Boston 86¢

Range

3¢-86¢

Family volume

$24K

Identifier

KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-AZ

Aug 9, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 11m ago

Implied probability

55¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 9, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 11m ago

Bid

49¢

Ask

57¢

Spread

24h volume

$150

Family rank

#4 of 16

16 outcomes · Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

Closes

Nov 1, 2026

Family volume

$24K

Orderbook snapshot

49 / 57¢

Kalshi
8¢ spread
BidSize
49¢5
44¢19
43¢392
40¢150
35¢4
AskSize
57¢1
58¢20
69¢5
70¢100
71¢4

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Arizona is one of the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 1, 2026

Identifier

KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-AZ

SF Signal
SF Index
449.95
Regime
taker

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

415.4%

IY (No)

450.0%

Adj IY

450%

CRI

1

RV

737%

VR

3.24

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

415.4%
450.0%
Adj IY
450%
1
RV
737%
VR
3.24
IAR
1.6/h
Overround
8.8%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.