Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above ___ end of April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$88
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
164 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity
Analysis
This contract asks whether Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) stock will close above $8.00 at the end of April 2026. The 9% probability reflects market skepticism about the stock reaching that price level within the specified timeframe. The main drivers of this low probability are Opendoor's current trading range and the time remaining until the April deadline. Factors that could shift this probability include quarterly earnings reports demonstrating stronger-than-expected business performance, broader real estate market improvements affecting housing demand, or company-specific operational developments. The key catalyst will be Opendoor's earnings announcements between now and April 2026, as these reports typically trigger significant stock movement and will provide concrete evidence of the company's financial trajectory.
- ›Opendoor's current stock price relative to the $8.00 strike and historical volatility patterns
- ›Quarterly earnings results and guidance from Opendoor between May 2026 and April 2027
- ›Broader real estate market conditions and housing transaction volumes affecting iBuying business fundamentals
- ›Changes in interest rates and mortgage availability that impact residential property valuations
- ›Any significant management changes, strategic pivots, or acquisition activity announced by the company
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (25% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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