SimpleFunctions
KalshiJan 1, 2027243 days left

Will Steve Witkoff leaves Special Envoy to the Middle East in before 2027?

This contract is priced at 24¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 4¢ spread.

Implied probability

24¢
$21K volume
$9K liquidity
70% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$30K

Best sibling

Kash Patel 69¢

Ticker

KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SWIT

Price history

24¢ current

16¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 8, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

20 / 24¢

Kalshi
4¢ spread
BidSize
20¢19
19¢38
18¢366
17¢640
16¢2.0K
AskSize
24¢58
25¢125
26¢284
30¢376
32¢250

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Steve Witkoff leaves as Special Envoy to the Middle East before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SWIT

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

600.9%

IY (No)

37.6%

Adj IY

481%

CRI

4

RV

928%

VR

3.70

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

600.9%
37.6%
Adj IY
481%
4
RV
928%
VR
3.70
IAR
0.5/h
Overround
8.4%
LAS
0.20

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